By admin 
The 98th Academy Awards are poised to deliver a spectacle of cinematic achievement, with the highly anticipated clash between Paul Thomas Anderson’s political action epic, "One Battle After Another," and Ryan Coogler’s record-shattering vampire drama, "Sinners," dominating the conversation. As Variety’s Awards Circuit meticulously analyzes the evolving landscape of awards season, it becomes clear that this year’s race is one of the most fiercely contested in recent memory, a testament to the diverse and compelling narratives that have captured audiences and critics alike.
The venerable "Awards Circuit" section of Variety serves as the definitive hub for all things related to the Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, and Tony Awards, offering in-depth analysis and predictions curated by Chief Awards Editor Clayton Davis. These predictions, updated every Thursday, are not merely personal preferences but a reflection of the current momentum and standings within each competitive race, acknowledging the fluid nature of buzz and unexpected shifts driven by industry events and audience reception. The sentiment echoed by Joaquin Phoenix during his Best Actor acceptance speech for "Joker" – "Run to the rescue with love, and peace will follow" – resonates deeply with the thematic undercurrents of this year’s nominated films, many of which explore profound human experiences through the universal language of cinema.
This awards season has been a fascinating dichotomy, showcasing the immense power of both blockbuster spectacles and intimate independent films. Themes of sin, grief, and redemption have been explored with a depth and nuance that have resonated across genres, solidifying cinema’s enduring ability to connect with audiences on an emotional and intellectual level.
The narrative thrust of "One Battle After Another," a sprawling political action epic, has propelled it to the forefront of the Best Picture race. Its impressive sweep of precursor awards, including wins at the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, ACE Eddies, DGA, PGA, and WGA, along with at least one SAG Award, historically signifies an almost insurmountable lead. In the annals of Oscar history, no film that has achieved this particular constellation of wins has ever relinquished the Best Picture trophy. This dominance suggests a powerful consensus among various industry guilds and critics, highlighting the film’s widespread critical acclaim and perceived technical and narrative excellence. The film’s narrative, set against a backdrop of political intrigue and escalating conflict, has clearly struck a chord with voters, likely due to its timely themes and masterful execution by director Paul Thomas Anderson.
However, "Sinners," Ryan Coogler’s groundbreaking vampire drama, presents a formidable challenge, holding its own with crucial wins at the ACE, SAG ensemble, and WGA awards. The SAG ensemble win, in particular, is a significant indicator, signifying widespread appreciation for the collective performances within the film. Historically, no film that has secured both the SAG ensemble and WGA awards has ever lost Best Picture, presenting a compelling counter-narrative to "One Battle After Another’s" dominant precursor run. The success of "Sinners" is not only a testament to its artistic merit but also carries profound cultural significance. A victory for the film would mark a watershed moment, potentially bringing the first-ever Best Picture win for a Black woman in a producing capacity and, perhaps, a directing Oscar for Coogler himself, a monumental achievement that would undoubtedly inspire future generations of filmmakers. The film’s exploration of complex themes within a genre framework has clearly resonated, demonstrating Coogler’s ability to craft a commercially successful yet artistically rich narrative.
The potential for records to fall on Oscar night is palpable, underscoring the unprecedented nature of this year’s competition. The dual frontrunners, "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners," represent distinct yet equally powerful cinematic visions, each with a legitimate claim to the coveted Best Picture award.
In the fiercely competitive acting categories, the Best Actress race appears to have a clear frontrunner: Jessie Buckley for her heart-wrenching portrayal of a grieving mother in Chloë Zhao’s "Hamnet." Buckley’s performance has been lauded for its raw emotional power and nuanced depiction of loss, a performance that many believe is destined for Oscar recognition. The other acting categories, however, remain exhilaratingly open, promising suspense and surprise on awards night.
Timothée Chalamet initially emerged as the early favorite for his starring role as table tennis prodigy Marty Mauser in "Marty Supreme." His early wins at the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards solidified this position. However, his subsequent misses at the BAFTA and SAG Awards, where Michael B. Jordan took home the latter prize, have shifted the momentum. Anecdotal evidence from voters suggesting that Chalamet, at 30 years old, "will get one when he’s older," indicates a potential delay in his Oscar trajectory. This perceived shift in sentiment appears to have benefited Jordan, who is now a strong contender for Best Actor. Furthermore, Jordan’s potential win could pave the way for his co-star, Delroy Lindo, to secure the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. Lindo’s performance as a character grappling with complex moral dilemmas is poised to edge out strong competition, including Sean Penn’s portrayal of the racist Col. Lockjaw in "One Battle After Another" and Stellan Skarsgård’s nuanced performance in "Sentimental Value." The depth and breadth of performances in these supporting roles highlight the rich talent pool this year.
The Supporting Actress race is equally dynamic. Wunmi Mosaku has emerged as a serious contender for her role in "Sinners," bolstered by a crucial BAFTA win. However, she faces stiff competition from Teyana Taylor, whose performance in "One Battle After Another" has garnered significant industry buzz. Adding another layer of intrigue is Amy Madigan, whose performance in the horror film "Weapons" has maintained a strong presence in the conversation, fueled by considerable industry support. This multi-faceted competition in the Supporting Actress category underscores the depth of talent and the diverse range of performances that have captivated voters.
As we venture into the final days leading up to the 98th Academy Awards, the anticipation is palpable. The ceremony promises to be an unpredictable and undeniably exciting event, a celebration of cinematic excellence that reflects the diverse voices and compelling stories that have defined the past year. Variety’s final Oscar predictions offer a glimpse into the likely outcomes, acknowledging the delicate balance of industry sentiment, critical acclaim, and audience impact.
Projected Winner Leaders (Films):
"Sinners" is projected to lead with seven potential wins, showcasing its widespread appeal and critical success across multiple categories. Close behind are "Frankenstein" and "One Battle After Another," each predicted to take home three awards, demonstrating their significant impact on the awards landscape. "KPop Demon Hunters" is anticipated to secure two wins, highlighting its surprising strength in specific categories.
Projected Winner Leaders (Studios):
Warner Bros. is positioned to be the dominant studio, with a projected eleven wins, a testament to their robust slate of critically acclaimed and commercially successful films. Netflix follows with an impressive six anticipated wins, demonstrating their continued influence in the awards arena. Apple Original Films, Neon, and 20th Century Studios are each projected to secure one win, indicating a diverse distribution of accolades across various distributors.
The following nominees are presented in alphabetical order, with the *** symbol denoting the predicted winner for each category. This comprehensive overview provides a detailed look at the potential victors across the major Oscar races.
Best Picture
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners ***
- The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Weapons
Best Director
- Chloë Zhao – Hamnet
- Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
- Ryan Coogler – Sinners ***
- Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Best Actor
- Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
- Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
- Michael B. Jordan – Sinners ***
- Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
- Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse
Best Actress
- Awkwafina – The Farewell
- Jessie Buckley – Hamnet ***
- Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
- Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
- Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie
Best Supporting Actor
- Al Pacino – The Irishman
- Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Delroy Lindo – Sinners ***
- Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
- Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Best Supporting Actress
- Amy Madigan – Weapons
- Florence Pugh – Little Women
- Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
- Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners ***
- Zazie Beetz – Joker
Best Original Screenplay
- Bong Joon Ho & Han Jin-won – Parasite
- Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
- Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole – Sinners ***
- Taylor Sheridan – Wind River
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Greta Gerwig – Little Women
- Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another ***
- Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit
- Todd Phillips & Scott Silver – Joker
- Yorgos Lanthimos & Tony McNamara – Poor Things
Best Cinematography
- Greig Fraser – Dune
- Jarin Blaschke – The Lighthouse
- Lawrence Sher – Joker
- Robert Richardson – One Battle After Another
- Yong-gyu Choi – Sinners ***
Best Film Editing
- Fred Raskin – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Jay Cassidy – One Battle After Another
- Michael Shawver – Sinners ***
- Thelma Schoonmaker – The Irishman
- Yorgos Mavropsaridis – Poor Things
Best Production Design
- Adam Stockhausen – The Grand Budapest Hotel
- Bob Shaw & Grant Major – One Battle After Another
- Fiona Crombie & Alice Baker – Poor Things
- Mark Ricker & Karen O’Hara – The Irishman
- Regina Graves & Philippa Price – Sinners ***
Best Costume Design
- Arianne Phillips – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Caroline B. Hill – One Battle After Another
- Consolata Boyle – Hamnet
- Ruth E. Carter – Coming 2 America
- Sarah Evelyn – Sinners ***
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
- Arjen Tuiten & David Malinowski – Joker
- Heidi Cardenas & Bill Corso – One Battle After Another
- Jo Albie & Georgia Lockhart – Hamnet
- Vivian Baker & Anne Morgan – Sinners ***
- Yolanda Toussieng & Kazuhiro Tsuji – The Iron Lady
Best Original Score
- Alexandre Desplat – The French Dispatch
- Hans Zimmer – Dune
- Ludwig Göransson – Tenet
- Michael Giacchino – Sinners ***
- Thomas Newman – 1917
Best Original Song
- "Hear My Voice" – The Trial of the Chicago 7
- "Io Sì (Seen)" – The Life Ahead ***
- "Speak Now" – One Night in Miami…
- "Stand Up" – Harriet
- "The Other Side" – Trolls World Tour
Best Sound Mixing
- Dune
- Joker
- 1917
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners ***
Best Sound Editing
- Dune
- Joker
- 1917
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners ***
Best Visual Effects
- 1917
- Dune ***
- Mank
- Tenet
- The Midnight Sky
Best Animated Feature Film
- Onward
- Soul ***
- The Mitchells vs. the Machines
- Wolfwalkers
- Vivo
Best Documentary Feature
- Boys State
- Crip Camp
- My Octopus Teacher ***
- The Mole Agent
- Time
Best International Feature Film
- Another Round (Denmark)
- Better Days (Hong Kong)
- Collective (Romania)
- Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
- The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia) ***
The 98th Academy Awards promise an unforgettable night, celebrating the pinnacle of cinematic artistry and storytelling, with the epic showdown between "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners" poised to define this historic awards season.