17 Feb 2026, Tue

The health care economy, and a surprising Humira chart

The recent jobs report, which President Trump lauded on social media as a testament to "GREAT JOBS NUMBERS," requires a more nuanced dissection to understand the structural fragility of the current U.S. labor market. While the headline figures suggest a robust expansion, a granular analysis reveals a startling reality: if the healthcare sector were removed from the equation, the U.S. workforce would have actually shrunk last month. This phenomenon, often referred to by economists as the "medicalization of the GDP," indicates that while traditional sectors like manufacturing, retail, and even certain segments of the tech industry are plateauing or shedding roles due to automation and shifting consumer habits, healthcare remains an insatiable vacuum for labor.

At the heart of this expansion is the pharmaceutical sector, exemplified by the meteoric rise of Skyrizi (risankizumab). Following the "patent cliff" of Humira, AbbVie’s strategic pivot toward Skyrizi and its sibling drug Rinvoq has been more successful than even the most optimistic Wall Street analysts predicted three years ago. By February 2026, Skyrizi has secured dominant market shares across multiple indications, including plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and Crohn’s disease. The drug’s financial trajectory is a microcosm of the healthcare economy: high-cost, high-innovation specialty biologics are driving record revenues, which in turn fuel massive corporate infrastructures, marketing budgets, and specialized clinical roles.

The $5.3 trillion figure cited in recent economic summaries represents nearly 20% of the total U.S. Gross Domestic Product. To put this in perspective, the United States now spends more on healthcare than the entire GDP of most G7 nations. This spending is not merely a "cost" in the traditional sense; it is a massive redistributive mechanism that supports millions of households. From the specialized technicians operating CRISPR-based gene therapy equipment to the burgeoning army of administrative staff required to navigate the Byzantine labyrinth of prior authorizations and pharmacy benefit management (PBM) rebates, healthcare is where the money—and the people—are going.

The labor data from the early weeks of 2026 shows that healthcare and social assistance added more than 70,000 jobs in a single month, while sectors like professional and business services remained stagnant. This reliance on healthcare for employment growth creates a paradoxical policy challenge. On one hand, the government celebrates the low unemployment rates; on the other, the rising cost of labor in the healthcare sector directly contributes to the inflation of insurance premiums and federal deficits. The "Health Care Inc." newsletter, authored by Bob Herman, has long tracked how money influences these businesses, and the current data suggests we have reached a tipping point where the business of care is the business of the nation.

The health care economy, and a surprising Humira chart

Experts in health economics point to several factors driving this "limitless" growth. First is the inescapable demographic reality of an aging population. The last of the Baby Boomer generation is moving into the years of peak medical consumption, necessitating a vast expansion in home health services, long-term care facilities, and chronic disease management. Second is the rapid pace of pharmaceutical innovation. While drugs like Skyrizi are expensive, they represent a shift toward long-term management of autoimmune conditions that previously required more invasive and costly hospitalizations. However, the pricing power retained by manufacturers ensures that these innovations do not necessarily lead to lower overall systemic costs, but rather a shift in where the dollars flow.

Furthermore, the "Trump economy" of 2026 finds itself in a precarious position regarding healthcare policy. While the administration emphasizes deregulation and "America First" manufacturing, the actual growth is happening in the highly regulated, government-subsidized corridors of Medicare and Medicaid. The federal government remains the largest payer in the system, meaning that "great jobs numbers" are, in a very literal sense, being financed by the American taxpayer through public health programs. This creates a circular economic flow: the government spends money on healthcare, which creates jobs, which generates tax revenue, which the government then uses to spend more on healthcare.

The dominance of companies like AbbVie, Eli Lilly, and UnitedHealth Group in the 2026 market reflects a consolidation of power that has reshaped the American suburb. In cities across the Midwest and the Sun Belt, the local hospital system or a regional health insurance processing center has replaced the factory as the town’s largest employer. These are "recession-proof" jobs, as the demand for medical care is inelastic; people do not stop needing insulin or immunology treatments because the stock market dips. This stability is the silver lining of the healthcare-heavy economy, providing a buffer against the volatility seen in other sectors.

However, the "Skyrizi’s the limit" mantra also carries a warning. If the U.S. economy becomes too dependent on healthcare for its growth, it risks falling into a "cost disease" trap. In this scenario, the rising costs of essential services like healthcare and education consume an ever-larger share of household income, leaving less for discretionary spending that drives other parts of the economy. When a family’s health insurance deductible and out-of-pocket costs for specialty medications rise faster than their wages, their contribution to the "real" economy—buying cars, dining out, or investing in new homes—diminishes.

From a clinical perspective, the success of drugs like Skyrizi is a triumph. Patients who were once debilitated by severe psoriasis or inflammatory bowel disease are now leading productive lives, thanks to targeted IL-23 inhibitors. This "human capital" argument is often used by industry lobbyists to justify high prices: a healthy worker is a productive worker. Yet, the systemic question remains: at what point does the cost of maintaining that human capital exceed the economic value the capital produces? With healthcare spending approaching $16,000 per capita in 2026, we are testing the limits of that equation.

The health care economy, and a surprising Humira chart

The role of the "demon on the shoulder," much like the "Cycling Mikey" figure mentioned in the original STAT report, is played by investigative journalists and policy watchdogs who scrutinize the flow of these trillions. They point to the inefficiencies that sustain this job growth—the "administrative bloat" where for every one doctor, there are now nearly twenty non-clinical staff members. While these administrative roles contribute to the "great jobs numbers," they do not necessarily improve patient outcomes. They are, in many ways, the friction of a $5.3 trillion engine that is running hot.

As we look toward the remainder of 2026, the trajectory of the healthcare economy seems fixed. The pipeline of high-cost biologics shows no signs of slowing, and the political appetite for radical cost-containment measures remains low, given that any significant cut to healthcare spending would immediately manifest as a spike in unemployment. The Skyrizi era represents a new "Gilded Age" for American medicine—one defined by incredible scientific breakthroughs and massive corporate profits, but also by an underlying economic structural dependence that makes the sector "too big to fail."

In conclusion, the U.S. workforce’s reliance on the healthcare sector is a double-edged sword. While it provides a reliable source of employment and drives innovation in life sciences, it also signals an economy that is increasingly specialized in managing its own decline and disease rather than producing new forms of wealth. President Trump’s celebration of the jobs report is technically accurate, but it masks a profound shift in the American identity. We are no longer a nation of builders or shopkeepers; we are a nation of caregivers, bill-coders, and pharmaceutical innovators, operating within a $5.3 trillion ecosystem where, for now, the sky truly is the limit. Whether this model is sustainable for the next decade is the question that will define the next era of American economic policy. For now, the "Health Care Inc." machine rolls on, fueled by high-stakes drugs, an aging population, and a government that cannot afford to let the momentum stop.

By admin

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