By Lina Irawan 
The Alternative for Germany (AfD), founded just 13 years ago, achieved what many political analysts consider a historic triumph, garnering over 44% of the vote according to initial projections from public broadcasters ARD and ZDF. This performance more than doubled its previous showing in the region five years prior, cementing its position as the dominant political force in Saxony-Anhalt, a state of 2.1 million people located west of Berlin. The scale of this victory underscores a deep-seated discontent among a significant portion of the electorate, not just with regional policies but also with the national government’s performance.
In stark contrast, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led nationally by Friedrich Merz and the dominant force in Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years, was set for a disastrous outcome, projected to secure only around 18% of the vote. This represents a catastrophic loss of nearly half its support, signaling a severe blow to the party’s regional hegemony and raising uncomfortable questions about its national strategy. While the article initially misidentified Friedrich Merz as Chancellor, it is important to clarify that Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats (SPD) is Germany’s current Chancellor, and Friedrich Merz leads the opposition CDU. However, AfD strategically targets Merz and the CDU as symbols of the "old establishment" and "Berlin," capitalizing on national government unpopularity even in regional contests.
Ulrich Siegmund, the 35-year-old AfD candidate for governor in Saxony-Anhalt, jubilantly declared to public broadcaster ARD that "we have written history." His comments reflected the party’s anti-establishment ethos, asserting that voters had sent a clear signal that "things cannot carry on like this" and that it was "also a signal toward Berlin." Siegmund did not mince words when discussing the national political figures, stating, "A very good campaigner for us in this election campaign was Friedrich Merz. Every day this man is in the chancellery is one too many." This rhetoric, while inaccurate in its portrayal of Merz’s current role as Chancellor, effectively captures the anti-establishment sentiment and frustration that the AfD has so skillfully harnessed.
AfD’s Ambition to Govern Alone and the "Firewall" Challenge
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) entered the election with the explicit ambition of securing an absolute majority in the state legislature, a feat that would allow it to govern without coalition partners. This strategy was designed to circumvent the "firewall" – the unwavering refusal of all mainstream democratic parties in Germany to collaborate with the AfD, citing its extremist tendencies and anti-democratic positions. For decades, modern Germany has maintained a robust consensus against any far-right or right-wing populist party leading a national, state, or major-city government, a stance deeply rooted in the country’s post-World War II commitment to democratic values and rejection of its Nazi past.
However, as polls closed and initial projections rolled in, it remained unclear whether the AfD had indeed achieved the elusive absolute majority. While their projected share of over 44% was monumental, it appeared to fall marginally short of the 50% plus one seat needed to govern independently. This outcome, while a stunning victory, meant the party’s ambition of single-handedly breaking the "firewall" might not be immediately realized, leading to complex and potentially protracted coalition negotiations.
For the AfD, forming a state government would represent the biggest prize in its relatively short history, a significant step towards normalizing its presence in mainstream German politics. This comes at a time of widespread disillusionment with the national "traffic light" coalition government of the SPD, Greens, and FDP, which has struggled to convince voters of its ability to revitalize Germany’s sluggish economy. High inflation, rising energy costs, bureaucratic hurdles, and a perceived lack of decisive action on key economic reforms have fueled public frustration, creating fertile ground for the AfD’s populist narrative.
The projected result is undeniably a severe setback for Friedrich Merz and his center-right CDU, a party that has historically been the bedrock of stability in German regional politics. The erosion of their support in Saxony-Anhalt underscores a broader challenge facing established parties across Germany, particularly in the economically less prosperous eastern states, which were formerly part of communist East Germany. These regions often feel overlooked by Berlin, experience higher unemployment, and grapple with demographic shifts, making them particularly receptive to the AfD’s promises of radical change and its anti-migration stance.
The AfD’s Ideology and Extremist Classification
The AfD is currently the largest opposition party in Germany’s national parliament, the Bundestag, and its strength is disproportionately concentrated in the eastern German states, including Saxony-Anhalt. Its regional branch in Saxony-Anhalt, like several others, has been classified as a "proven right-wing extremist group" by the domestic intelligence agency (Verfassungsschutz). This classification is not merely symbolic; it permits heightened surveillance of the party and its members, reflecting serious concerns about its adherence to democratic principles. The agency cites various factors, including the denigration of migrants from Muslim countries and the promotion of concepts like "remigration," a politically charged term often understood to mean the mass deportation of immigrants, including those with German citizenship.
The party’s rhetoric often flirts with, and sometimes crosses into, territory historically associated with the extreme right. For example, a leader of the AfD in a neighboring state is currently appealing two convictions for knowingly using a Nazi slogan. Despite these classifications and controversies, the AfD vehemently rejects accusations of extremism, consistently portraying them as politically motivated attempts to discredit and suppress a legitimate opposition voice.
Election Results and Reactions
The projections from ARD and ZDF public television, based on exit polls and partial counting, placed the AfD at a commanding 44% to 45% of the vote. This monumental achievement leaves the CDU trailing far behind at an estimated 18%, a dramatic decline from its previous performance. The center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the Left Party (Die Linke), and the Greens were all projected to hover around 9% each, highlighting the fragmentation of the political landscape and the significant shift of voters towards the AfD.
A new party, the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a populist left-wing party, was also vying for seats, with projections suggesting it might barely clear the 5% threshold required to enter the state legislature. The presence of BSW further complicates coalition arithmetic, as it also positions itself as anti-establishment and critical of current national policies, potentially drawing votes from traditional left-wing parties.
AfD’s national co-leader, Alice Weidel, hailed the projected result as "sensational," asserting that "we have received a very clear mandate to govern here." She extended an olive branch, stating that the party’s "hand is outstretched to all who want to make Saxony-Anhalt better and move Germany forward." This invitation, however, is likely to be met with skepticism and rejection by mainstream parties, who view any collaboration as legitimizing the AfD’s agenda.
The incumbent CDU governor, Sven Schulze, expressed visible disappointment, yet he congratulated the AfD on becoming the state’s strongest political force. He acknowledged that "we as the CDU will also have to deal with this result," though he refrained from detailing how his party would respond to such a significant defeat.
Franziska Hoppermann, the national general-secretary of Merz’s CDU party, unequivocally rejected any notion of softening the party’s stance against working with the AfD. She reiterated the fundamental ideological differences: "AfD is a right-wing extremist party. It wants to leave the euro; that would be economic downfall… it works closely together with Russia, it wants a completely different social model." She firmly concluded, "We will not work with them." This resolute stance reflects the deep-seated conviction within Germany’s mainstream political establishment that the AfD represents an existential threat to liberal democracy.
Precedents and Complex Coalition Scenarios
The situation in Saxony-Anhalt echoes a similar scenario two years prior in neighboring Thuringia, where the AfD also emerged as the strongest party in a state election but ultimately did not form a government. In Thuringia, a CDU governor took power with a minority government, demonstrating the lengths to which mainstream parties would go to prevent the AfD from assuming executive power.
If the AfD falls short of an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt, the task of forming a stable government will be exceptionally challenging. Given the CDU’s drastically reduced vote share, a traditional "grand coalition" with the SPD might not be numerically sufficient or politically viable without additional partners. The prospect of a "Jamaica coalition" (CDU, Greens, FDP, named after the colors of the Jamaican flag) or a "traffic light coalition" (SPD, Greens, FDP) also appears difficult given the projected low numbers for the SPD, Greens, and the uncertain fate of the FDP (which was not explicitly mentioned in the given results but is a national party).
A highly complex and delicate scenario could emerge if the CDU attempts to form some kind of alliance with smaller parties that would require at least tacit support from the Left Party. Historically, the CDU has maintained a strict policy of not forming coalitions with the Left Party due to their divergent ideologies, particularly concerning economic policy and foreign relations. Any such arrangement would be fraught with internal dissent within the CDU and would likely be viewed as a desperate measure to keep the AfD out of power.
Powers of State Governments and AfD’s Policy Agenda
Germany’s 16 federal states possess extensive powers, particularly in crucial areas such as overseeing security matters, running the education system, and implementing social policies. Should the AfD somehow manage to form a government, Ulrich Siegmund has outlined a clear and controversial policy agenda for Saxony-Anhalt. Among his top priorities are a "deportation offensive" and the removal of incentives for people to come to Germany and "exploit our social system." These proposals directly target migration policies, a central pillar of the AfD’s platform.
On education, the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt advocates for allowing home schooling, which is currently largely prohibited in Germany, and pledges to ban schools from officially raising the rainbow flag, insisting instead that they fly the national flag. These policies reflect a culturally conservative stance and a rejection of what the party perceives as "woke" ideologies.
Furthermore, Siegmund expressed a desire to initiate a long process to withdraw Saxony-Anhalt from the regional public broadcaster, citing concerns about "disinformation." This move aligns with the AfD’s broader narrative of mistrust in mainstream media and institutions. On foreign policy, the party opposes taxpayers’ money being "given away" to Ukraine and states it would push to lift sanctions against Russia. However, it is crucial to note that matters of foreign policy, including international aid and national sanctions, fall under the purview of the federal government, not individual state governments. While Saxony-Anhalt’s government could express these views, it would lack the direct power to implement them.
Despite these limitations, state governments do play a role in Germany’s upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat, which must approve certain federal legislation. Saxony-Anhalt, being one of the smaller states in a nation of 83.5 million people, controls four of the 69 votes in the Bundesrat. While this influence is limited, an AfD-led state government could use its platform in the Bundesrat to voice its dissenting views, potentially complicating federal legislative processes and further amplifying its national visibility.
The projected strong victory of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is more than just a regional election result; it is a profound indicator of shifting political sentiments in Germany. It represents a significant challenge to the post-war democratic consensus, forcing mainstream parties to confront an increasingly powerful and institutionalized far-right force. The coming days and weeks will reveal whether the "firewall" can hold, or if Germany is on the cusp of witnessing its first far-right state government since the dark days of World War II. The outcome will have far-reaching implications, not only for Saxony-Anhalt but for the entire federal republic and its standing in Europe.
