The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) stands "very, very close" to assuming governmental power, its deputy parliamentary leader has declared, following a momentous electoral triumph in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt. Preliminary results from Sunday’s vote indicate the AfD secured a commanding 43.8% of the ballots cast, falling just three seats shy of an outright majority in the 83-seat state parliament. This landmark achievement, which places the AfD on the precipice of governing a German state for the first time since the end of World War Two, has sent shockwaves through the nation’s political establishment and ignited fervent debate about the future of German democracy.
With its substantial vote share, the AfD is now actively seeking to forge alliances or secure the support of individual politicians from other parties to form a governing coalition. However, this path is fraught with difficulty, as the majority of established German political parties have steadfastly refused to engage in any form of cooperation with the AfD, citing its extremist ideology and controversial policy proposals. Despite this widespread ostracism, Beatrix von Storch, the AfD’s deputy parliamentary leader, has issued a direct appeal to her political adversaries, urging them to enter into dialogue and asserting, "You cannot say I do not accept the vote of the people." She contends that democratic principles necessitate engagement with the electoral mandate, warning that a refusal to do so could plunge the state into "severe chaos" and potentially lead to the necessity of new elections.
The gravity of the AfD’s success was underscored by the stark reaction from Friedrich Merz, the leader of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The CDU, which historically has been a dominant force in German politics, garnered a mere 17.2% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, according to preliminary figures. Merz expressed his party’s profound dismay, stating that the outcome was "deeply shocking" and that a return to "business as usual" was no longer tenable. He emphasized the urgent need for "profound reforms" within the country and within his own party, acknowledging the imperative for the CDU to "reach people at an emotional level." Merz characterized the election result as "a seismic result not just in the country but also in my own political party and I take that very seriously."
The prospect of a far-right party governing a German state carries immense historical weight. Since the conclusion of World War Two, no party of this political ilk has held executive power at the state level. Governing a state bestows significant responsibilities, including authority over crucial areas such as policing, education, and social welfare, making the AfD’s potential ascendancy a matter of national and international concern. Von Storch reiterated her call for dialogue, stating that the election results "were on the table and now democrats have to talk to [one] another. This is what democracy demands." She further elaborated on the potential consequences of continued intransigence from other parties, suggesting that a breakdown in negotiations could lead to a political deadlock and the prospect of a rerun election.
Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s leader in Saxony-Anhalt, echoed von Storch’s sentiment during a press conference on Monday, proclaiming that his party had received a "clear mandate to govern." Siegmund, a 35-year-year-old politician, dismissed the assessment by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, which classifies the AfD in the state as "right-wing extremist." The AfD’s policy agenda for Saxony-Anhalt is a focal point of contention. Among its most controversial proposals are the segregation of child refugees into special classes and the establishment of a dedicated task force to facilitate the detention and deportation of migrants deemed to be in the country illegally. These policies have been met with widespread condemnation from human rights organizations and political opponents.
Siegmund indicated that initial discussions with other parties commenced on Sunday evening, acknowledging that the process of forming a government could extend for "days or weeks." He outlined the AfD’s strategy, stating, "We reach out to everybody first, we will have consultations and then we’ll see whether [there are] individual parliamentary groups or MPs who would be willing to help us." The AfD is currently projected to secure 39 seats in the 83-seat state parliament, leaving them short of the 42 seats required for an absolute majority. The final seat allocation is still subject to confirmation.
Von Storch revealed to the BBC that the AfD is actively engaging with individuals within the CDU parliamentary group, suggesting a strategic approach to circumventing the party’s official stance. She posited that these CDU members are "very, very unhappy with their own party" and might be receptive to independent discussions. One potential avenue being explored involves an informal agreement with the newly formed left-wing populist BSW party. The BSW, which is expected to win five seats, shares the AfD’s tough stance on migration and supports the importation of Russian gas. An arrangement whereby the BSW provides tacit support could enable the AfD to form a minority government. However, with the exception of the BSW, all other established parties have explicitly ruled out any cooperation with the AfD.
Nationally, the AfD currently leads in opinion polls, outperforming both Merz’s CDU and the governing Social Democrats. Their strongest support base, however, remains concentrated in the eastern German states. This electoral success follows their victory in the 2024 state election in neighboring Thuringia, where they similarly failed to secure enough seats to form a government. A particularly contentious plank of the AfD’s platform is its "remigration" policy. While the party claims this refers to the deportation of criminals and individuals residing in the country illegally, it is widely interpreted as a call for mass deportations of migrants, raising significant human rights concerns.
Commentators and political rivals alike have described the AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt as a watershed moment, signaling a significant break from Germany’s post-war political tradition. Siegmund, addressing his supporters, declared that the result was "not just about Saxony-Anhalt. It’s a signal for the whole of Germany – a self-confident signal." The international reaction to the AfD’s triumph has been varied. On Sunday, former US President Donald Trump shared a screenshot of the projected results on his Truth Social platform. This was subsequently amplified by Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who lauded the outcome as a "historic win for the pragmatic AfD." Dmitriev had previously praised the Russia-friendly AfD as "the party of hope and reason, co-operation truth and hope for Germany." This echoes a sentiment expressed by US Vice-President JD Vance during Germany’s federal election last year, when he endorsed the AfD, a move that drew considerable criticism in Germany as political interference.
In stark contrast, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a centrist, expressed a deeply critical perspective, asserting that "in Poland only idiots and traitors can rejoice at the triumph of the AfD." When questioned by the BBC about the widespread fears surrounding the AfD’s potential rise to power, Beatrix von Storch attributed these anxieties to a sense of insecurity among voters, who she claimed are afraid of "losing our economy, they are afraid of losing our inner security." She argued that conservative voters are gravitating towards alternative political parties because they feel their concerns are being ignored. Von Storch further cautioned that established conservative parties risk becoming obsolete, drawing parallels with political shifts in Italy, the United Kingdom, and France, suggesting that a failure to adapt could lead to their "disappearance from the landscape."

