By Lina Irawan 
The critical chokepoint, through which a substantial portion of the world’s seaborne oil passes, has been a flashpoint for decades, but the current standoff has pushed tensions to unprecedented levels. Following the recent collapse of a fragile ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran, the Strait has once again become the epicenter of a dangerous geopolitical chess match, with global energy security hanging in the balance.
In the past week, the Trump administration has aggressively pushed back against the prevailing narrative that Iran has virtually shut down the critical chokepoint through persistent threats of missile and drone attacks. This counter-narrative from Washington aims to reassure global markets and project strength, even as independent analyses suggest a more complex and precarious reality. Traffic data since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed has indeed shown only a trickle of ships openly transiting the Strait, hinting at another looming supply shock for global energy markets. However, a significant and growing number of tankers are reportedly sailing "dark," meaning their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders have been intentionally turned off, making them invisible to public tracking systems and concealing their location and cargo. This clandestine activity complicates efforts to accurately assess the true volume of oil flows and introduces considerable uncertainty into market projections.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright, speaking on Tuesday, provided figures intended to underscore the administration’s claims of continued, albeit covert, oil egress. He stated that the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz was almost 9 million barrels per day (bpd). Wright credited the sustained efforts of the U.S. military, particularly the robust presence of the U.S. Navy and its regional allies, for facilitating these movements. When combined with an additional 5 million to 7 million barrels per day shipped via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities that bypass the Strait, total oil flows from the Gulf region average approximately 15 million barrels per day, he added in a post on X. This figure, while substantial, still compares unfavorably to the 20 million barrels that were exported daily before the outbreak of the current conflict and the subsequent naval blockade.
Echoing Wright’s assertion, a U.S. official told Axios on Sunday that about 8 million barrels are quietly exiting the Gulf each night through a southern lane in the Strait of Hormuz, with direct assistance and protection from the U.S. military. This covert operation highlights the intricate and high-stakes nature of the U.S. strategy to maintain global oil supply while simultaneously strangling Iran’s economy.
The situation marks a significant escalation from previous efforts. Before the ceasefire agreement fell apart, the U.S. military had guided tankers through an alternate, less direct route that hugged the Omani coast, providing a measure of protection against Iranian interference. This strategy had initially allowed enough ships to exit the Gulf, temporarily easing pressure on global oil markets and preventing a major price surge. However, that perceived success prompted Iran to intensify its attacks on vessels attempting to bypass its own claimed corridor, which it views as sovereign territory, reigniting hostilities and leading directly to the current, more confrontational standoff. Iran’s actions underscored its determination to assert control over the Strait and to deny the U.S. an easy workaround to its strategic chokehold.
The administration’s optimistic figures, however, are met with some skepticism by independent experts. Oil market researcher Rory Johnston, for instance, offered a slightly more conservative estimate. He projected that average volumes out of Hormuz peaked at around 7 million barrels per day over the past week. Johnston acknowledged, however, that this figure could indeed be higher due to the inherent uncertainty surrounding "dark transits." The clandestine nature of these operations makes precise tracking exceedingly difficult, as ships intentionally evade detection. Meanwhile, Johnston’s estimates for pipeline exports stood at approximately 4 million barrels per day, slightly below the administration’s higher-end figures. The discrepancy, while not vast, points to the challenges of real-time data collection in a conflict zone and the potential for both sides to present figures that best support their narratives.
In addition to "dark transits," another critical tactic employed for sneaking oil supplies through the Strait and out of the Gulf is ship-to-ship (STS) transfers. This practice, historically used by sanctioned nations like Iran and Russia to circumvent Western embargoes and sanctions, involves transferring crude oil from one tanker to another, often in international waters or areas with lax oversight. This allows the origin of the oil to be obscured, or for a vessel to load oil from a tanker that has already exited the Strait, thereby reducing its own exposure to risk.
To slip under Iran’s nose and evade its heightened surveillance and interdiction efforts, tankers typically exit the Gulf, transfer their oil to another ship off the coast of Oman, and then shuttle back through the Strait to repeat the process. This complex maneuver aims to minimize the time a high-value, fully loaded tanker spends in contested waters. While effective for some, not all ships manage to go undetected, which explains why Iran continues to claim that the Strait is completely shut down to hostile traffic, even as it occasionally attacks vessels. These attacks serve as a warning and a demonstration of Iran’s capability, regardless of the overall flow volume.
Crucially, while non-Iranian crude finds its way out through these clandestine methods, the U.S. naval blockade is effectively preventing Iran itself from exporting its oil via the Strait of Hormuz. This blockade, part of the broader "maximum pressure" campaign, is depriving the Iranian regime of a vital revenue lifeline, crippling its economy. Simultaneously, other Gulf oil producers, such as Iraq, which traditionally depends heavily on the Strait for its exports, are successfully getting their barrels out by leveraging "dark transits" and ship-to-ship transfers, often with U.S. military assistance. This creates a stark asymmetry: Iran’s oil is largely trapped, while its neighbors’ oil, vital for global markets, is largely flowing.
"Hefty chunk of non-Iranian crude still getting out, unlike the Iranian crude that isn’t," Johnston succinctly observed in another post on X, highlighting the strategic success of the U.S. blockade in isolating Iran’s energy exports. This asymmetry is central to the Trump administration’s strategy, aiming to maximize economic pain on Tehran without completely disrupting global oil supplies, which would have severe repercussions for consuming nations and potentially undermine international support for the U.S. stance.
Despite these efforts to maintain some level of supply, global oil markets still face a significant supply deficit. The ongoing conflict, combined with reduced overall flows compared to pre-war levels, forces consuming countries to tap into their strategic petroleum reserves. These reserves, designed for emergencies, are already running low and are heading toward critical levels, raising concerns about long-term energy security if the standoff persists or escalates further. The longer the deficit continues, the more vulnerable global economies become to price shocks and supply disruptions.
However, the oil that is coming out of the Gulf, even through illicit channels, provides additional "wiggle room" for global markets. In a notable development, crude prices have actually declined since spiking last month when the ceasefire ended and fighting flared up again. This decline suggests that the market, while still tight, is factoring in the successful, albeit covert, efforts to keep some barrels flowing. This oil market reprieve is a significant factor in the Trump administration’s calculus. It buys President Trump more time to continue squeezing Iran’s economy with his naval blockade, a strategy that some officials in Tehran have reportedly admitted is causing an economic collapse within the Islamic Republic. The economic pressure is designed to compel Iran to return to the negotiating table on U.S. terms, or to trigger internal dissent that could destabilize the regime.
And even more pressure could be on the way. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a key architect of the administration’s financial warfare, offered a stark warning about Iran’s future. “It will be a combination of economic isolation like the world has never seen before, and the continued blockade in the Strait of Hormuz that will keep anything from going in or out of the Iranian ports,” Bessent told Newsmax, without elaborating on the specific new measures or the timeline for such unprecedented isolation. His statement underscores the administration’s resolve to intensify economic sanctions and maintain the naval pressure, aiming for a complete strangulation of Iran’s external trade.
The ongoing deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz is therefore more than just a dispute over maritime passage; it is a high-stakes test of endurance and resolve. The U.S. is leveraging its naval power and intelligence capabilities to maintain a precarious balance: allowing crucial oil flows for global markets while simultaneously imposing a near-total economic blockade on Iran. Tehran, in turn, is attempting to disrupt these flows and demonstrate its capacity to inflict pain, hoping to force a relaxation of sanctions. The current situation, characterized by clandestine oil shipments and escalating economic warfare, suggests that President Trump believes he has the upper hand, at least for now, in a dangerous game where the stakes for global energy and regional stability could not be higher. The question remains how long this delicate and dangerous equilibrium can be maintained before one side breaks, or before a miscalculation sparks a wider conflict.
