By admin 
As the October 30th deadline looms for Golden Globes submissions, the film industry is abuzz with strategic maneuvering, akin to selecting the perfect costume for the early stages of the awards season. The Golden Globes, renowned for its bifurcated Best Picture categories – Drama and Comedy/Musical – often sees strategic genre placement as crucial as the film’s inherent tone. This is a ceremony that once recognized "The Martian" as a Best Comedy winner, highlighting the fluid nature of its classifications. For the third consecutive year, the Comedy/Musical race appears to be more intensely contested than its Drama counterpart, a departure from the usual dynamic, with several major contenders yet to officially declare their intentions.
On the drama front, Christopher Nolan’s summer blockbuster, "The Odyssey," and "La Bola Negra," the critically lauded epic from Spanish directors Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi (collectively known as Los Javis), have emerged as early frontrunners. "La Bola Negra" solidified its promising trajectory by clinching the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) this month, a mere four months after the duo’s Best Director win at Cannes. This momentum bodes exceptionally well for its awards season prospects.
The awards landscape is still awaiting critical reception for a couple of significant potential contenders. Sources close to Variety reveal that Denis Villeneuve’s highly anticipated "Dune: Part Three" recently held intimate, small-group screenings. Early reactions from these screenings have been overwhelmingly positive, generating significant buzz. Furthermore, the New York Film Festival is set to premiere Tony Gilroy’s "Behemoth!" as its centerpiece selection this Friday. Starring Pedro Pascal as a former child prodigy cellist, this Searchlight release, slated for a December 4th debut, could prove to be a compelling new entrant into the awards race.
Amazon MGM Studios faces a particularly intricate challenge this year, managing three potential drama contenders that could each make a strong case for the category. These include Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s "Project Hail Mary," starring Ryan Gosling; Peter Farrelly’s "I Play Rocky," which secured the first runner-up position for TIFF’s People’s Choice Award; and Bassam Tariq’s critically acclaimed "Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother." The latter, an Orion Pictures release featuring Mahershala Ali as a devout hitman, is considered a near certainty for a drama nomination. Consequently, it is anticipated that at least one of the other two Amazon MGM titles will be positioned in the comedy category to avoid splitting the studio’s support. The prevailing speculation suggests that "Hail Mary" will lean towards comedy, while "Rocky" will contend in drama.
Focus Features is also navigating a strategic decision with "Obsession," Curry Barker’s micro-budget possession thriller that has achieved remarkable global box office success, grossing over $400 million. Following the precedent set by films like "Get Out" (2017) and "The Substance" (2024), many anticipate a push for "Obsession" in the comedy category. However, considering the film’s content and the breakout performance of Inde Navarrette, who appears poised for a potential Best Actress Oscar nomination as a possessed young woman, a drama classification might be a more strategic and fitting choice. While "Obsession" is likely to garner recognition for its cinematic and box office achievements, and Navarrette is a strong contender for acting nominations, securing a Best Picture nomination in either category presents a more formidable challenge. The critical question for "Obsession" and Navarrette may ultimately be where she has the strongest chance of winning.
The Best Actress in a Drama category appears less crowded than in previous years. The most formidable contender is Sandra Hüller, who is presenting a compelling dual threat with her performances in Paweł Pawlikowski’s "Fatherland" and Markus Schleinzer’s "Rose." Her role in "Rose" already earned her the Best Leading Performance award at the Berlin Film Festival. In the comedy arena, Julianne Moore is widely considered the frontrunner for her performance in Jesse Eisenberg’s highly anticipated directorial debut, "The Debut." Navarrette would also face stiff competition from Olivia Wilde in "The Invite," a film projected to be a significant player across multiple categories. A drama win for Navarrette would position the 25-year-old Latina breakout as a strong alternative to Moore, potentially mirroring the trajectory of past Golden Globe drama winners who were overlooked by the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, such as Fernanda Torres for "I’m Still Here" and Wagner Moura for "The Secret Agent." Both utilized their Golden Globe wins as significant boosts leading into Oscar nomination voting. Given SAG voters’ historical resistance to non-English language performances, Hüller, with her German-language films "Fatherland" and "Rose," could inherit a similar narrative if she secures the Best Actress in a Drama award.
Antoine Fuqua’s "Michael," a biopic starring Jaafar Jackson and notable for being the first biopic to surpass $1 billion at the worldwide box office, awaits an official category placement, with its fate uncertain given Golden Globe history. Biopics like "Bohemian Rhapsody" (2018) and Baz Luhrmann’s "Elvis" (2022) were embraced as dramas and yielded lead actor wins, while "Ray" (2004) and "Walk the Line" (2005) were classified as comedy/musical, also resulting in lead actor victories. Similarly, "A Star Is Born" (2018) found favor as a drama, whereas "Inside Llewyn Davis" (2013) competed in comedy. The inconsistent precedent suggests that "Michael" could be placed in either category. The current prediction leans towards a comedy/musical run for "Michael," alongside consideration for cinematic and box office achievement, though the possibility of a drama placement remains open.
The significance of official submissions for categories beyond the main acting and picture awards, particularly for cinematic and box office achievement, is often underestimated. At the 2025 Golden Globes, Villeneuve’s team strategically opted to exclude "Dune: Part Two" from the box office race, focusing solely on a Best Picture (Drama) nomination, which it received. This strategic decision is a critical consideration for the upcoming "Dune: Part Three." Scheduled for release on December 18th, the same day as Marvel’s "Avengers: Doomsday," both films are expected to have substantial pre-sales, making them eligible for the box office achievement category should their studios choose to submit. However, the timing presents a significant hurdle. Nomination ballots for motion pictures are distributed on November 24th and are due back by December 4th, with December 2nd marking the final date for film press conferences and uploads to the Globes’ screening platform. Practically, this means either film would need to be screened for the several hundred voting journalists more than two weeks before its theatrical release. Given Marvel’s typical approach to prerelease screenings, "Doomsday" is unlikely to open its doors that early. "Dune 3" is therefore considered more likely to contend in these stakes, underscoring the need to avoid assumptions.
A notable development this awards season is the increased seriousness with which several studios are treating their animated feature contenders, aiming for recognition beyond that singular category. Laika is mounting a significant campaign for Travis Knight’s "Wildwood," with the stop-motion studio explicitly aiming to elevate the perception of animated films beyond mere "kids’ fare." At 132 minutes, "Wildwood" is touted as the longest stop-motion feature ever made and marks Laika’s first PG-13 release. Following a panel discussion at Telluride with Knight and cinematographer Caleb Deschanel, the studio previewed select scenes at SCAD AnimationFest. The film is set to world premiere at the BFI London Film Festival on October 11th, followed by its U.S. premiere at AFI Fest on October 21st, with Fathom Entertainment distributing it theatrically two days later. Sources indicate that Laika plans to submit "Wildwood" for Best Picture (Drama) in addition to Animated Feature. While the Golden Globes reopened their top categories to animation in 2021, the three animated films to have won a Best Picture Globe ("Beauty and the Beast," "The Lion King," and "Toy Story 2") all achieved this in the Comedy/Musical category prior to this change. A drama submission represents uncharted territory but signals a strong intent to have animation taken seriously. Laika does have prior Golden Globe success, with "Missing Link" winning Animated Feature in 2020, coincidentally besting "Toy Story 4," which later won the Oscar.
"Wildwood" will not be the sole animated contender vying for broader recognition. Independent Film Company’s "Tangles," Leah Nelson’s hand-drawn adaptation of Sarah Leavitt’s graphic memoir about her mother’s Alzheimer’s disease, is also expected to contend in the drama category. This biographical film, a sensation at Cannes, boasts a formidable producing team including Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Seth Rogen, who is also a potential acting nominee for "The Invite."
The placement of these films will undoubtedly have ripple effects across the lead acting races, which are also bifurcated by genre at the Golden Globes. If "Hail Mary" is categorized as a comedy, Ryan Gosling would enter a category where he previously won his only Golden Globe for "La La Land." A comedy/musical classification for "Michael" would offer Jaafar Jackson’s screen debut a more accommodating lane than the increasingly competitive drama category.
Robert Pattinson is enjoying a prolific year with four films in contention: "The Drama," "The Odyssey," "Primetime," and "Dune: Part Three." His turn as "To Catch a Predator" host Chris Hansen in Lance Oppenheim’s "Primetime" is widely seen as his most direct path to an Actor (Drama) nomination. "The Odyssey" offers another potential nomination in supporting actor, alongside co-star John Leguizamo. The leading contenders in Actor (Drama) include Andrew Scott, portraying the late Ian Charleson in Simon Stone’s "Elsinore," and Pattinson’s "Odyssey" co-star Matt Damon. Close behind are John Turturro for "The Only Living Pickpocket in New York," Pedro Pascal for "Behemoth!," Sebastian Stan for "Fjord," and Anthony Ippolito for "I Play Rocky," all vying for potential nominations.
Pattinson is not the only notable talent with multiple potential nominations. Penélope Cruz is in contention for two supporting actress bids, for "The Invite" and "La Bola Negra," as well as a potential Actress (Drama) nomination for Florian Zeller’s "Bunker." Her real-life husband, Javier Bardem, could also earn a Drama Actor nomination for his role in the same film. Olivia Wilde is expected to receive recognition for her performance in "The Invite," with potential nominations for directing and possibly supporting actress for "Behemoth!."
Sandra Hüller has the potential to secure double nominations in Actress (Drama) for both "Fatherland" and "Rose," and a supporting actress nomination for "Project Hail Mary" (and possibly "Digger?"). The Golden Globes rules do not preclude performers from receiving multiple nominations in the same year. The awards season also thrives on unexpected contenders that can galvanize campaigns for films that may have been underestimated. Questions linger about whether Gemma Chan or Channing Tatum could launch supporting runs for Beth de Araújo’s "Josephine," or if Scarlett Johansson could garner a nomination for James Gray’s "Paper Tiger." Merritt Wever’s performance in "Primetime" is also being closely watched as a potential surprise nomination on announcement morning, a recognition that would be well-deserved.
Variety’s predictions in all film categories are provided below. It is important to note that category placements are not all confirmed and remain subject to change. The 84th Golden Globe nominations are scheduled to be announced on Monday, December 7th, with the ceremony, hosted by Nikki Glaser, taking place on Sunday, January 10th, 2027.
Projected Nomination Leaders (Films):
- "The Odyssey" (10)
- "The Debut" (7)
- "The Invite" and "La Bola Negra" (6)
- "Wild Horse Nine" (5)
- "Dune: Part Three," "Fjord," and "Michael" (4)
The full list of Oscar predictions in all categories can be found here.
It is important to note that Variety’s parent company, Penske Media Corporation, is in a joint venture with Eldridge to own Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions.
